Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
